Are the Polls Right?

Use the ABC-538 interactive election map here.
Click to enlarge this screen shot.

The Guardian raises a question that's been in the back of your Head Trucker's mind:  how can it be possible that the American public is so evenly divided between supporters Harris and Trump, and the numbers haven't changed for the last 3 months?

The Guardian writes:  

Large numbers of surveys would be expected to show a wider variety of opinion, even in a close election, due to the randomness inherent in polling. The absence of such variation suggests that either pollsters are adjusting “weird” margins of 5% or more, Clinton and Lapinski argued – or the following second possibility, which they deemed more likely.

“Some of the tools pollsters are using in 2024 to address the polling problems of 2020, such as weighting by partisanship, past vote or other factors, may be flattening out the differences and reducing the variation in reported poll results,” they write.

Either explanation “raises the possibility that the results of the election could be unexpectedly different than the razor-close narrative the cluster of state polls and the polling averages suggest”, they added.

We can't know whether the polls are accurate until all the results are in.  Meanwhile, here are the latest forcasts from ABC/538:

Look how steady their popular vote numbers are - I never recall seeing any poll in any election that looked like this for months at a time.

And here's their probability forecast - more variation but still awfully damn close.

Here's the poll tracking chart from the Guardian itself:

And here's the chart from Wikipedia, which looks very different from the others:

The only vote I'm sure of is the one I cast on Tuesday.  The rest is up to you, my fellow Americans.

P. S. - Of course you know, a president can't get much done without majorities of the same party in the House and Senate.  Look at how often Congress stonewalled Obama when he was in the White House.  But I can't spare the energy to worry about all that just now.

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Thirty Million Votes Are In

Today's election forecast (not based on early voting) from ABC/538
shows a probability of 53-47 in Trump's favor.
Click to enlarge.

Today's election news is up and down and criss-cross, like the lines on the chart above.

1.  Thirty million Americans have cast early votes in the presidential election.  But it seems more have voted red than blue at this time.  Republican pollster and political consultant Frank Luntz explains why Kamala isn't reaching the "persuadable voters," and what she should do about that:

 

[What I Say:  Though I'm wary of Luntz's recommendations, given his longtime support for Pat Buchanan, Newt Gingrich, and George W. Bush, your Head Trucker has noticed since the first debate that Kamala has no particular agenda to sell.  It's pleasing to the base to hear her call Trump a fascist over and over, but does that win any voters who aren't already Kamala supporters?  

And her speeches around the country, what snips and bits I've heard of them, are mainly a rehash of the same rich-aunt talking points from the first debate:  she wants to help out with the grocery bills, give diaper money to new parents, and hand a big wad of cash to first-time homebuyers (which nobody ever offered me).  Along with nifty catchphrases like "Turn the Page" and "Not Going Back," that's about all I've heard of what she actually plans to DO if elected. She's been way over-cautious about telling us plainly and simply what that is, in my view.

I understand why she can't be the "change" candidate without disparaging Biden.  But that's not cutting it.  Voters need something to vote FOR, not just against.  Think Hillary, or better yet, think Margaret Thatcher.  Extraordinary women, clear -- sharp -- determined.  

But what do I know. Kamala has to be herself, not a copy of someone else.  I don't doubt that she is doing her best right now, and she's fighting for our democracy, so God bless her.]

2.  UK newspaper The Guardian, traditional supporter of the Labour Party, sent a reporter to J.D. Vance's hometown in Ohio to find out why Kamala has low support from male voters there:

 

3.  Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican who broke with Trump after being fired from the White House, explains what Kamala needs to do now to "close the deal" and win the election:

 

4.  Contrary to all the above, political analysts on the Democratic side see hopeful signs in this week's early voting pattern, despite a flood of Republican-biased polls favoring Trump:

 

Well, steady on, boys.  We have to stay the course till the end, if what we believe in is worth fighting for.  No doubt there will be weeks of uncertainty and bickering and lies and maybe violence before we know the outcome of this election for sure.  But hang in there.  Don't give up the ship!  We may find safe harbor yet.

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92 Percent of LGBT Americans Support Marriage Equality

This week, sensationalistic headlines around the country have been proclaiming the shocking news that there are gays who don't support marriage equality. Ho-hum. Ya know, fellas, there has never, ever been a poll taken that produced results of 100 percent for or against anything: there's always a few oppositional personalities who will take the minority view of things. Sometimes they are right, too.

 But in point of fact, here is how the Pew poll - which actually seems to be a combination of two surveys taken in 2013 and 2014 (I can't find the raw data on their site) - breaks down:

Click to enlarge.

I suppose the 7 percent of LGBT's opposed are those well-hidden "best friends" of the anti-gay crowd who love to proclaim that their gay friends don't support marriage equality.

This 2013 Pew survey of LGBT's provides more data if you're interested - though bear in mind always that these figures do not come from the mouth of God, but are subject to interpretation and variation. One little point, though, intrigues your Head Trucker: the whole transgender thing has become quite a cause celebre in the last few years, but Pew says:

Although there is limited data on the size of the transgender population, it is estimated that 0.3% of all American adults are transgender.

Which is what your Head Trucker thought: the ratio of trans people to gays is about the same as the ratio of gays to the general population (i.e., somewhere around 3 percent).

Pew also found that the division between party boys and sensible people is about what your Head Trucker thought - fifty-fifty:

And since we're talking statistics, there's another Pew report you might like to look at, with some interesting details on the changing generations in the general population:

I can't keep all these new-fangled generations straight, can you?  But here's a handy cheat sheet:

The Game of the States

I always wanted to have that board game as a kid, but never got it.  Anyway, here's the latest marriage map of the country, courtesy of Freedom to Marry:

Note that same-sex marriage is not effective in Minnesota and Rhode Island until August 1st.

BTW, the latest USA Today poll shows a record high of 55%-40% nationwide in favor of same-sex marriage. The only groups with majorities not in favor are, as you might expect, Republicans, Southerners, and the over-65's.

Having said that, it's rather amazing how closely their views align with those of Russian President Putin, who has just signed a law banning all gay pride rallies and any other public form of support - "to protect the children," of course. American conservatives have in fact already been sidling up to the formerly dreaded Ruskies, and the notorious Scott Lively, who got Ugandan politicians all fired up to pass the "Kill the Gays" bill a few years back, has just finished a 50-city speaking tour in Russia. He boasts that the new law substantially follows recommendations he made.

May he rot in hell, is what your Head Trucker says. Meanwhile, a small contingent of pride demonstrators was beaten and arrested in Moscow this weekend. This is exactly what them good ol' boy, Bible-believing, God-fearing American patriots want to see happen here - and worse, and would do in a heartbeat to you and me, if only they could.



And in St. Petersburg, antigay thugs broke through police protection to beat up the gays:




Bottom line: While we're all deservedly a bit giddy over the Supreme Court rulings here, give a thought to our persecuted brothers and sisters in other lands.  And don't bitch so much about life in America, Miss Thing. You could living be in a much worse place.

Loving the Gays around the World - Who Does, Who Doesn't

The Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C., a nonpartisan outfit, has released the results of surveys taken in various countries, answering the question, "Should homosexuality be accepted by society?" And here you go - click to enlarge:

Note:  this map omits the twenty or so countries that do offer same-sex civil unions, domestic partnerships, civil partnerships, etc., which may or may not provide substantial marriage-like rights and protections to same-sex couples.

Election Results by the Numbers

Your Head Trucker is heading out to dine with M.P. tonight for our belated Thanksgiving dinner with all the trimmings, so I may be too stuffed to write anything afterwards. He had his big dinner with his 4 grown kids, their spouses/others, and the ex last week, to which he contributed a few dishes, but he loves to cook so much that he insisted on doing a full turkey meal for just the two of us this week.

This will perhaps be the last post of mine on the election, but I thought you boys would be very interested to see what the nonpartisan Pew Forum has discovered on the religious factors of this election.

1. Election results by religious affiliation:

2. The electorate, broken down by religious groups. Notice that the fundamentalists/evangelicals are less than a fourth of the total:

Of course, numbers alone don't mean much; it's how you interpret them that counts. And the Republicans are up to their goofy tricks on that, as Hendrik Hertzberg notes in a fine analysis of the election results in the New Yorker this week. Excerpt:

News flash: the President won, handily. With late returns still trickling in, his popular-vote margin now exceeds four million, a million more than George W. Bush amassed when he ran for reëlection. (Obama’s electoral-college majority is also larger: 332 to Mitt Romney’s 206, as against Bush’s 286 to John Kerry’s 251.) When it came to this year’s thirty-three Senate races, Republican prophecies of a Republican takeover, universal some months ago, grew rarer as November approached, except on the farther-out reaches of conservative punditry. Human Events, which describes itself as Ronald Reagan’s favorite newspaper, and CBN, the religious-right TV network, each predicted a net gain of five seats for the G.O.P. Morris, who predicted a six-seat gain, gloated that a Republican Senate would be “Barack Obama’s parting gift to the Democratic Party.” That it was, except for the “parting” part. And except for the “Republican” part: not only did the Democratic caucus grow from fifty-three to fifty-five, Democratic senatorial candidates got a total of ten million more votes than their Republican opponents.

In 2004, the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal, conservatism’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, congratulated President Bush for “what by any measure is a decisive mandate for a second term” and exulted, “Mr. Bush has been given the kind of mandate that few politicians are ever fortunate enough to receive.” This year, examining similar numbers with different labels, the Journal came up with a sterner interpretation. “President Obama won one of the narrower re-elections in modern times,” its editorial announced. Also:

Mr. Obama will now have to govern the America he so relentlessly sought to divide—and without a mandate beyond the powers of the Presidency. Democrats will hold the Senate, perhaps with an additional seat or two. But Republicans held the House comfortably, so their agenda was hardly repudiated. . . . Speaker John Boehner can negotiate knowing he has as much of a mandate as the President.

And there's more weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth amongst those cast into outer darkness - but I reckon you guys get the drift.


Also in the New Yorker, cartoonist David Sipress sums things up with an apt drawing:

Election Day

My internet modem went out last Thursday, which is why I haven't posted anything for four days - but I did get pretty damn good at playing Minesweeper.  I tell you what.   The Internet is no longer a luxury, but a necessity - like electricity, indoor plumbing, and microwave ovens.  Hell, these days with all the magazines disappearing, you can't even . . . oh, never mind.

Several calls to tech support later, I now have a new modem and am thankfully connected to the world again - just in time for the election. The polls are still too close for comfort, so your Head Trucker is keeping his fingers crossed until the official results are in. Here's Nate Silver's final chart from yesterday:

Looks good for our side, but - it ain't over till it's over. There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and lip, you know?

And if you live in one of The Four states where marriage is on the ballot, remember:

Honk to Joe.My.God. for the above images.

I'll post the election results when I get them, and maybe some other tidbits during the day. Ya know, it seems so strange that four years have gone by, whoosh, just like that. Seems like we just went through this whole election thing not very long ago. I can't believe how quickly the time has passed since then. My grandmother told me that the years go by quicker and quicker, the older you get. She was right.


Update #1: Nathan Rich, in an article about undecided voters, notes the striking contrast in spirit between this election and the last one:

I spoke to a different type of voter four years ago, when, two weeks before the 2008 election, energized by Barack Obama’s campaign, I joined several friends in Norfolk, Virginia, which is home to the largest naval base in the world. It was an ecstatic, optimistic time, and the Obama campaign offices were like college dorms—dozens, even hundreds of young volunteers passed through, not only canvassing but making phone calls, entering data, and determining strategy, subsisting on cold pizza and cold coffee. Upon arrival we were sent to some of the city’s poorest inner-city neighborhoods, composed almost entirely of black voters. We visited ramshackle, single family homes and vast concrete-and-brick housing projects; many of the people on our list had never voted before.

There were challenges, to be certain—because we were white, many people we met were convinced that we were spies for John McCain’s campaign, even though our arms were filled with brochures showing Obama’s face. Some well-meaning people, mostly older women, advised us to leave a neighborhood for our own safety. One group of teenagers drew me an intricate map of the route I’d have to follow in order not to stumble into the middle of a gang war. But over the course of a week we visited more than a thousand homes, speaking with hundreds of voters and, witnessing their enthusiasm, we became convinced that Obama would carry the state.

When I returned to Virginia to canvass last week, my friends and I went to Norfolk, excited to go back to the same neighborhoods we had visited in 2008. But the moment we entered the president’s local campaign office, we discovered how much had changed. We were informed by a campaign staffer that our services were not wanted. In fact there would be no canvassing for Obama during the week at all—and not only in Norfolk but in all of Virginia. Instead, all volunteers were asked to make phone calls to Obama’s most enthusiastic local supporters. The goal was to sign them up to canvass in the campaign’s final four days, beginning the Saturday before the election. We explained that we had not travelled considerable distances to Virginia only to make phone calls, which we could have done from our own living rooms. But the campaign would not budge. “I’m sorry,” said the young woman who greeted us in the Norfolk office, with a theatrical shrug. “I just work here.”

Here was the difference between 2012 and 2008. While the offices look the same—the young people making phone calls, the enervated chatter, the boxes of doughnuts—the underlying structure had been transformed. “I just work here.” This time around, the people in charge are not volunteers, but employees. Since 2010, when the Supreme Court overturned restrictions on private donations by corporations, the Obama campaign, flush with money, has increased its paid staff gigantically; there were three times as many employees in the Hampton Roads office as four years earlier. In 2008 the approach was politics from the ground up, by social network. This time, it was Obama, Inc., with strategy fixed at the highest level, by the campaign’s central headquarters in Chicago.

Update #2:   One more "yes we can" and a shout-out to the gays from the President's last campaign speech. Try to imagine what the gays would get mentioned for under the other party's regime.




Update #3: 14 Races for Gay and Trans People to Watch Today.


Update #4: From Andy Borowitz, "The Republicans' Closing Argument":

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—With only one day until the election, the Republican Party today released its official closing argument to the American people.

In its entirety, the argument read as follows: “We’re strongly opposed to FEMA and health care, but basically O.K. with rape.”

Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, said that the Party’s message of “zero tolerance toward disaster relief combined with a more easygoing attitude about rape” would lead the Party to victory on Election Day.

“Our argument couldn’t be simpler: when God wants to create a hurricane or make a woman pregnant, big government should get out of the way,” he said.

The Party chairman said that the closing argument was part of its “expand the map” strategy: “We’re contesting every state, from Pennsylvania to Colorado to Iowa, where we believe there are voters who are in sync with our more advanced view of hurricanes and rape.”

Mr. Priebus also had this message for the American voter: “Your vote is important. We’ve spent billions trying to buy it.”

See also: "Romney Airdrops Two Billion in Small Bills over Ohio."


Update #5: Poll closings today, via Joe.My.God.:

Update #6: Via Andrew Sullivan, what this election all boils down to:

This is essentially a people's contest. On the side of the Union it is a struggle for maintaining in the world that form and substance of government whose leading object is to elevate the condition of men--to lift artificial weights from all shoulders, to clear the paths of laudable pursuit for all, to afford all an unfettered start and a fair chance, in the race of life. Yielding to partial and temporary departures from necessity, this is the leading object of the government for whose existence we contend.--Abraham Lincoln, Special Message to the People of the United States, July 4, 1861.

Update #7: Again via Sullivan, Nate Silver's projections as of 10 a.m. this morning.  Please God he is right.

Newsbites

Well now that the BFD of healthcare reform is finally almost sorta kinda over - the Senate had to do some last-minute tweaks on the bill and sent it back to the House today for final approval, which makes me wonder how the President could sign something on Tuesday that wasn't absolutely final, but - well, here are a few other stories that have caught my eye in the last few days that I haven't had time to comment on, thought I'd post them for your information.

--Pentagon Relaxes DADT - making it a little harder for the military to boot people out based on third-party outings.



--Pope Should Resign - so says Andrew Sullivan, a devout Catholic, in light of the deepening crisis over Benedict's role in covering up sexual abuse scandals in Germany and the United States, including a case where one priest allegedly molested 200 deaf boys at a Wisconsin school.



--National party identification, registered voters and likely voters only, at this point in time:



All adults:



State of the Country, all adults:



--Legal Pot?  Come November, California voters will get a chance to legalize marijuana in that state, and not just for medical purposes - no doubt while still looking down their noses at us lowly but perfectly legal tobacco smokers.  Marijuana, of course, is as harmless as sugar candy, and doesn't rot your teeth.  Right . . . .

--Ten Democrats Attacked - Capitol Hill police are dealing with reports of bricks and bullets through office windows, vandalism, and in one case, a cut propane gas line.  CS Monitor:

Complicating matters for Republicans is the rhetoric of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), a favorite of tea partyers. On a Twitter feed Tuesday, Ms. Palin called on conservatives not to retreat, but to “RELOAD!” On her Facebook page, she posted a US map with cross-hair targets on the states where she plans to campaign against Democrats who voted for healthcare reform.

In an interview on NBC’s “Today” show Thursday, Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona defended Palin, his running mate in the 2008 presidential campaign, saying that such “battleground” language is typical for political campaigns.

Palin, BTW, has just signed a deal for her new reality TV show on TLC, asking $1+ million per episode.  Ah, no wonder she gave up that crappy little lowlife job as, um, what was it?  Oh yeah, Governor of Alaska.  Sales of her book, Going Rogue, are already up to $7 million, and she signed a multi-million-dollar deal with Fox News a while back too.

And here I worked my ass off all these years, slaving away through college and dead-end jobs and poverty and all sorts of difficulties, and still have very damn little to show for all that honest work - and may still be a homeless man in retirement.  I don't care what you say, boys - brazen, busty, and dumb always wins the pot hands down, always has, always will.

--And finally:  Texas Christians outraged over "Gay Jesus" play - big-ass uproar in Stephenville at the Tarleton State campus over a student workshop production of Terrence McNally's 1998 passion play, Corpus Christi, depicting Jesus and the apostles as gay men living in modern-day Texas.  Local Bible-thumpers say it demeans Christianity to portray Jesus as a gay man.  Video report here.

I never heard of the play before, but I sure would like to see it now.  From the 1998 production:

Honks to Andrew Sullivan and Joe.My.God. for some of these stories/images.

Update:  9:08 p.m., Texas time:  the House just passed the reconciliation bill, 220-207, so now the healthcare reform fight is really over.  And with this week's victory, the President's balls are starting to clank a little - good for him:

OMG: It's Him!

According to a new Harris Poll:

Majorities of Republicans believe that President Obama:

--Is a socialist (67%)

--Wants to take away Americans' right to own guns (61%)

--Is a Muslim (57%)

--Wants to turn over the sovereignty of the United States to a one world government (51%); and

--Has done many things that are unconstitutional (55%).

Also, large numbers of Republicans also believe that President Obama:

--Resents America's heritage (47%)

--Does what Wall Street and the bankers tell him to do (40%)

--Was not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president (45%)

--Is the "domestic enemy that the U.S. Constitution speaks of" (45%)

--Is a racist (42%)

--Want to use an economic collapse or terrorist attack as an excuse to take dictatorial powers (41%)

--Is doing many of the things that Hitler did (38%).

Even more remarkable perhaps, fully 24% of Republicans believe that "he may be the Anti-Christ" and 22% believe "he wants the terrorists to win."

While few Democrats believe any of these things, the proportions of Independents who do so are close to the national averages.

Did you get that, guys?  One out of four of your Republican neighbors thinks Obama might be the Antichrist.  How utterly, ludicrously, ignorantly absurd.

Everyone knows it's Oprah.

The Party of NO

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Rachel hits the nail on the head:

If the Republican electorate is this extreme, what's the value of trying to reach across the aisle? . . . How are you going to make bipartisan peace with people who want to secede from the Union?

Check out the Daily Kos poll of a nationwide sample of 2,003 Republicans. Among other things:

• About a fourth want to secede from the Union - it's one-third in the South.
• About a third believe contraception - not abortion, just plain old contraception - should be made illegal.
• About three-fourths believe gays and lesbian should not be allowed to teach in public schools.
• A little more than half believe Sarah Palin is better qualified to be president than Barack Obama.
• And about 40 percent think Obama should be impeached; not for any crimes, but probably because nearly two-thirds believe he is a socialist - and of course, an Al-Qaeda sympathizer who "wants the terrorists to win."

Lord help us all.  The arrogant feeding on the ignorant:  that is the Republican party today, and utterly unfit to govern.

But ya know, fellas, they could be back in power in just a couple of years, if the Dems don't find a way to lead and govern - and improve their image.  Obama said last week he would "rather be a good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president." 

And if the nightmare fascist theocratic Republicans get back into office, he might also be the last Democratic president ever.  Not to mention the last freely elected president.

I'm just saying.

Maine: Too Close for Comfort

Maine -- Question 1 -- "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?"

The Positions: A 'Yes' vote overturns same-sex marriage, which the state legislature approved in May. A 'No' vote preserves same-sex marriage.

Nate Silver:

As in the other elections this cycle, recent polling shows somewhat contradictory results. A Research 2000 / Daily Kos poll shows Question 1 losing by one point. A Pan Atlantic SMS poll shows the initiative losing by 11 points. But a fresh PPP poll shows it passing by 4 points. The Research 2000 and Pan Atlantic polls showed slight movement toward the 'No' side from their previous surveys, while the PPP poll showed movement toward the 'Yes' side. . . .  The tight polling, certainly, should keep everybody on their toes, and gay marriage could quite easily be overturned. But I'd still put the Yes on 1 side as about a 5-to-2 underdog.

Andrew Sullivan:

However long it takes, how many battles we have to lose before we win the war, however hard it is to put your very integrity as a human being on the line for approval by strangers: this is worth doing. This is why we're here. This is what we're supposed to do.

In these United States, it shouldn't be a long, hard slog for the equal protection of the laws. But it is. Keep those fingers crossed, fellas.

Waterboarding for Jesus

A new poll from the Pew Forum reveals that white evangelicals, and people who attend church at least once a week, are the groups most likely to approve of torturing suspected terrorists. How very, very sad. See the results for yourself:

Comparable percentages of Republicans (15%) and Democrats (12%) believe that the torture of suspected terrorists to gain important information is often justified, but twice as many Republicans as Democrats say torture is sometimes justified (49% vs. 24%). Similarly, while nearly identical percentages of Republicans and Democrats say torture under these circumstances is rarely justified, 38% of Democrats believe the torture of suspected terrorists is never justified, compared with 14% of Republicans.

(Honk to Andrew Sullivan)

Glacial Movement

Like the CBS News poll I blogged about earlier this week, a new ABC/Washington Post poll of 1,072 adults nationwide reveals warming trends about same-sex marriage, and a thaw in oppostion to it:

At its low, in 2004, just 32 percent of Americans favored gay marriage, with 62 percent opposed. Now 49 percent support it versus 46 percent opposed -- the first time in ABC/Post polls that supporters have outnumbered opponents.

More than half, moreover -- 53 percent -- say gay marriages held legally in another state should be recognized as legal in their states.

The surprise is that the shift has occurred across ideological groups. While conservatives are least apt to favor gay marriage, they've gone from 10 percent support in 2004 to 19 percent in 2006 and 30 percent now -- overall a 20-point, threefold increase, alongside a 13-point gain among liberals and 14 points among moderates. (Politically, support for gay marriage has risen sharply among Democrats and independents alike, while far more slightly among Republicans.) . . .

Seventy-five percent of evangelical white Protestants say gay marriage should be illegal, and 68 percent feel that way strongly. Similarly, 83 percent of conservative Republicans are opposed, 73 percent strongly. Among all conservatives regardless of political affiliation, 66 percent are opposed.

Across the spectrum, 75 percent of secular Americans favor gay marriage, 55 percent strongly; so do 71 percent of liberal Democrats, 57 percent strongly; and 71 percent of all liberals, 54 percent strongly. Among all Democrats, 62 percent are in favor; among all Republicans, 74 percent are opposed.

The middle makes a significant difference: Fifty-four percent of moderates and 52 percent of independents now favor gay marriage, up from 38 and 44 percent, respectively, in 2006. But the single biggest shift has come among moderate and conservative Democrats: in 2006, just 30 percent in this group said gay marriage should be legal. Today it's 57 percent.

One other very pronounced difference is by age: Sixty-six percent of adults under age 30 support gay marriage. That drops to 48 percent of adults age 30 to 64 and plummets to just 28 percent among senior citizens.

Unlike the CBS poll, this one did not raise the question of civil unions.

The poll also covers such topics as marijuana, illegal immigration, gun control, torture, greenhouse gasses, and relations with Cuba; trends in those areas are mixed.

I wonder how long it will take for the "thaw" over equal marriage to reach Texas. Probly not in time to make any difference in my life - who gets married at 85, anyway?

Besides, you can have eat, drink, dance, smoke, gamble, garden, blog, skinnydip, and have sex all by yourself - but marriage you really gotta have somebody to do it with, ya know what I mean?

But even if it's a moot point for me personally - and getting mooter all the time - still, I hope I live to see the day when wedding bells ring out across the prairie for the younger generation of gays - something my generation has only ever been able to dream wistfully about.

F-Bombing Fox News

There can be no debate on the morality of torture: this is the clearest choice between good and evil you will ever see, despite the Righteous Right's murky attempts to confuse the issue.

Yet even among conservatives, it seems light is beginning to dawn. As witness Fox News anchor Shepherd Smith's passionate outburst during a discussion of the subject on April 22:

THIS IS AMERICA. WE DON'T FUCKING TORTURE. Period. Amen. End of story.

On a related note, an ABC/Washington Post poll last week of 1072 adults nationwide found that only 21 percent identify as Republican (and 35 as Democrat, 38 as independent). That's down from 32 percent Republican at election time last November.

(Here in Texas, 55.5 percent of voters went for McCain, 43.8 for Obama.)

The Republican party - the imperial party, the party of hatred, lies, big business, greed, wealth, war, and torture - is deservedly shrinking into irrelevance and obsolescence. But the remaining true believers are a hard, mean, nasty bunch; and that's dangerous.

The Sixty-Seven Percent Solution

Last week, a CBS News/New York Times poll of 973 adults nationwide found that 67 percent - that's two-thirds of those interviewed - support legal recognition of same-sex couples.

Only 28 percent favor no legal recognition, down 7 points in one month from a similar poll in March. The Iowa-Vermont effect?

The interesting thing to me is that support for equal marriage is nearly double that for civil unions - when you might have expected more people who are squeamish about the M-word would have gone the other way. But obviously the idea of "second-class marriages" doesn't hold nearly as much appeal as it used to among the great straight majority. That's wonderful. Sure seems like we are reaching a tipping point here, if other polls bear out this same finding.

Actually, it's breathtaking to someone like me, who is old enough to remember reading the morning headlines when I was in high school about cops raiding the one gay bar in town, hauling the patrons off to jail for "lewd and lascivious conduct" - i. e., groping an undercover cop who deliberately enticed somebody into touching him.

I was deep, deep in the closet back then, of course; and reading about things like that in the local newspaper was very scary - terrifying - to a very isolated gay kid like me, with absolutely no one to confide in.

But how times have changed. Wow.

(Honk to Joe.My.God.)

P.S. - Something I just noticed, looking at the CBS pie chart above: it seems to be subtly biased. Notice how the "no legal recognition" segment is placed in the dominant position at top, and is lighter colored; moreover, the marriage segment is cut away slightly next to the NLR segment: all of these little things make the NLR piece look a little bigger than it really is, don't you think? A little homophobia in the CBS art department, perhaps?

America Loves the Gays

Two men marry in Connecticut on November 12th (Newsweek)

. . . at least more than they used to. Newsweek has just polled 1,006 Americans and got these encouraging results:

the latest NEWSWEEK Poll finds growing public support for gay marriage and civil unions—and strong backing for the granting of certain rights associated with marriage, to same-sex couples. (Click here to see the full poll.)

Americans continue to find civil unions for gays and lesbians more palatable than full-fledged marriage. Fifty-five percent of respondents favored legally sanctioned unions or partnerships, while only 39 percent supported marriage rights. Both figures are notably higher than in 2004, when 40 percent backed the former and 33 percent approved of the latter.

When it comes to according legal rights in specific areas to gays, the public is even more supportive. Seventy-four percent back inheritance rights for gay domestic partners (compared to 60 percent in 2004), 73 percent approve of extending health insurance and other employee benefits to them (compared to 60 percent in 2004), 67 percent favor granting them Social Security benefits (compared to 55 percent in 2004) and 86 percent support hospital visitation rights (a question that wasn't asked four years ago).

In other areas, too, respondents appeared increasingly tolerant. Fifty-three percent favor gay adoption rights (8 points more than in 2004), and 66 percent believe gays should be able to serve openly in the military (6 points more than in 2004).

Despite the recently approved state measures, public opinion nationally has shifted against a federal ban on same-sex marriage. In 2004, people were evenly divided on the question, with 47 percent favoring a constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage and 45 percent opposing one.

In the latest poll, however, 52 percent oppose a ban and only 43 percent favor one. When respondents were asked about state measures, the numbers were closer: 45 percent said they'd vote in favor of an amendment outlawing gay marriage in their states, while 49 percent said they'd oppose such a measure. . . .

One reason that tolerance for gay marriage and civil unions may be on the rise is that a growing number of Americans say they know someone who's gay. While in 1994, a NEWSWEEK Poll found that only 53 percent of those questioned knew a gay or lesbian person, that figure today is 78 percent.

Drilling down a bit more, 38 percent of adults work with someone gay, 33 percent have a gay family member and 66 percent have a gay friend or acquaintance.

Media Mystery: Getting up, getting down in Fla.

One report says it's bad news for the gays:

As approval for Crist surges throughout the state, so does support for Amendment Two. According to a recent article in the Miami Herald, 55% of voters throughout Florida support a ban on same-sex marriage. While that is short of the 60% approval needed to amend the constitution, recent polls suggest that number is holding.

While another says it's all good in the Sunshine State:

A poll released Monday shows that a proposed amendment to ban same-sex marriage in Florida is likely to fail.The Quinnipiac University poll finds that 55 percent of voters support the amendment, but that is short of the 60 percent needed to amend the constitution. The latest poll shows a continuing drop in support for the amendment as opponents of the measure make voters aware of its broad implications.

So are we on top, or bottoming out down there? You guys with the journalism degrees, try to get your story, um, straight, will ya?