another day
far awaymen and boyssimple joysshirts and skinsinnocence
Tom Hewitt - Favorites 2
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A gay man's view of the world from down Texas way
C I V I L M A R R I A G E I S A C I V I L R I G H T.A N D N O W I T ' S T H E L A W O F T H E L A N D.
another day
far awaymen and boyssimple joysshirts and skinsinnocence
Tom Hewitt - Favorites 2
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BTW, I find these kinds of videos more enjoyable by slowing down the playback speed and muting the sound. Just sayin'.
Tom Hewitt - Favorites 1
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They would have had only a short time to settle into married life before Hitler took over their country and plunged the world into war. Did they have children? Did he go off to war or to forced labor? Did they live to see the liberation of their country, and subsequent domination by Russia? What happened to them, after that short space of peace?
What will happen to all of us now, in America? What would they say to us if they could speak? I wonder . . .
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The light of America's promise will burn brightas long as we never give up and we keep fighting.--Vice President Kamala Harris
Dare to be a Daniel,Dare to stand alone,Dare to hold a purpose firm,Dare to make it known.
Your Head Trucker swore off broadcast television thirty years ago, so I never saw this reunion special with Andy and company that was made in 2003. But I'm enjoying it now - maybe you will, too.
The Mayberry Special departs at 7 o'clock on Track 1. I've got my Pullman ticket in hand. Who else wants to go?
Bonus: Marina Coates from Mockingbird Lane Design has done a brilliant job of portraying the Taylor home in 3-D. Check it out:
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Once again, I have no words.
From a distance, we all have enoughAnd no one is in needAnd there are no guns, no bombs, and no diseaseNo hungry mouths to feed . . .
My grace is sufficient for thee; for my strength is made perfect in weakness.
Illustration of the Great Sphinx from worldhistory.org Click to enlarge. |
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
--William Butler Yeats
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After great pain, a formal feeling comes –
The Nerves sit ceremonious, like Tombs –
The stiff Heart questions ‘was it He, that bore,’
And ‘Yesterday, or Centuries before’?
The Feet, mechanical, go round –
A Wooden way
Of Ground, or Air, or Ought –
Regardless grown,
A Quartz contentment, like a stone –
This is the Hour of Lead –
Remembered, if outlived,
As Freezing persons, recollect the Snow –
First – Chill – then Stupor – then the letting go –
--Emily Dickinson
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Use the ABC-538 interactive election map here. Click to enlarge this screen shot. |
Large numbers of surveys would be expected to show a wider variety of opinion, even in a close election, due to the randomness inherent in polling. The absence of such variation suggests that either pollsters are adjusting “weird” margins of 5% or more, Clinton and Lapinski argued – or the following second possibility, which they deemed more likely.“Some of the tools pollsters are using in 2024 to address the polling problems of 2020, such as weighting by partisanship, past vote or other factors, may be flattening out the differences and reducing the variation in reported poll results,” they write.Either explanation “raises the possibility that the results of the election could be unexpectedly different than the razor-close narrative the cluster of state polls and the polling averages suggest”, they added.
Look how steady their popular vote numbers are - I never recall seeing any poll in any election that looked like this for months at a time. |
And here's their probability forecast - more variation but still awfully damn close. |
Click to enlarge. |
We all get a chance,
Everybody gets to dance . . .
Is that too much to ask?
Recommended read: Everything is Awesome (Again!) by Michael Grunwald at Politico. Excerpt:
The public may be grumpy, and politicians may be pitching doom and gloom, but it’s once again time for some great news: America is kicking ass! We are, as The Economist proclaimed on its cover this week, “The Envy of the World.”
The stock market just hit another all-time high. The uninsured rate is near an all-time low. Apartment construction hasn’t been this hot in half a century. Crime, inflation and illegal immigration are falling. Economic growth, job growth and wage growth are strong. The U.S. is no longer at war in Iraq, Afghanistan or, at least officially, anywhere else and its carbon emissions are declining, because its clean energy production is soaring. It’s still the richest and greatest nation on Earth, the land of opportunity that spawned the artificial intelligence boom, ultimate fighting, SpaceX and the Hawk Tuah multimedia empire. And our short national nightmare is over, because after 11 months without adorable cuddle-monsters, the National Zoo just took custody of two giant pandas. . . .
And yet, we haven't heard any of this from the Democratic candidates. Why?
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Today's election forecast (not based on early voting) from ABC/538 shows a probability of 53-47 in Trump's favor. Click to enlarge. |
But then once they got into office, we heard less and less of Kamala way down here in the provinces, until finally she just seemed to vanish into the woodwork. In fact, when I heard that Biden had dropped out of the race last July, and started wondering who could replace him as candidate, it was 20 or 30 minutes before I remembered Kamala at all: she has been that invisible for most of his time in office.
All of which is just to say, in recent days it has come to my mind that she must be under a terrific strain, having to jump overnight from a quiet, nearly forgotten role into the heat of a full-fledged campaign. When you consider that, you realize just what a very fine, even astonishing job she is doing. And I just pray the Lord will strengthen and sustain her in that mission, along with Walz and all others who are fighting the good fight now. It's a desperate, historic fight, and uphill all the way. The light of History will gleam upon their helmets, whether they prevail or fall.
The other thing I want to say is, how strange that for weeks we have been hearing about Kamala's slow but steady rise in the national polls; but this week, suddenly it's Trump who is pulling ahead, markedly. And this after some of the most filthy, most outrageous, most reprehensible lies, threats, and calumnies he's ever made. Why is that? Yes, I get the fact that polls are imperfect, subject to all kinds of errors and adjustments, yada yada. But why now, after weeks of being in the (small) lead, is Kamala dropping behind? Very odd.
I guess it is just like a real horse race, where sometimes, for no apparent reason to the untrained eye, as they near the finish line one horse pulls ahead and another can't keep up. Either that, or someone, somewhere is doing some manipulating of a kind I can't even imagine. All I know is, the only thing that will stop Trump from taking over is a massive blue wave at the polls. So let's do our best, fellas, and keep hope alive. It's not over till it's over.
A few stats from the Wall Street Journal, which leans Republican:
P. S. -- Blogger tells me this is my 4600th post on the Blue Truck. No kidding? Hard to believe. That's an average of about 285 posts a year since I started in 2008. I know it's mostly boring stuff, and nothing to brag about, but it gives this old shitkicker something to do.
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Time sure is speeding along now; seems like Biden dropped out of the presidential race just the other day, and suddenly here we are in October. Election Day, November 5th, is two weeks from tomorrow. Here in Texas, early voting began today, and we hope to get to the polling place sometime this week. Have you voted yet? The sooner, the better - this is not the time to procrastinate. You never know what might happen between now and Election Day.
I have read that election officers all around the country have strengthened and tightened security procedures this time around. I can tell you that where we live, all the elcction staff and volunteers are remarkably kind and helpful folks, and early voting is a breeze. They seem to have all the latest technology going, though still using paper ballots, as they should. And they are using numbered ballots this year, so you can memorize your ballot number and look it up later to be sure it was counted. An excellent idea. So I feel very confident in our local voting office: real patriots quietly doing a fine job.
As everyone knows, or should, the polling shows a dead heat, a virtual tie, between Harris and Trump. The ABC/538 forecast, which is refreshed daily as new polls come in, actually shows a slight advantage for Trump today:
Click to enlarge. |
And here is the interactive election map, which you can play with at the ABC/538 site listed in the top sidebar of this blog:
Click to enlarge. |
I haven't tried to blog all the election news here, an impossible task. And there's no point in my obsessing over every he-said, she-said thing. The essential thing is to vote, not talk, not worry, not fuss and fret over all the what-ifs. That does no one any good.
Oddly enough, now that the election is approaching, I don't feel the same drama in the air that I did in the last two presidential elections; is it just me, or does it seem to you like a dull re-run of a show you didn't like the first time you saw it? I do earnestly pray that the Democrats win the White House and both houses of Congress, so I'm going to cast my ballot and keep my fingers crossed. This little reminder to my truckbuddies and drive-by readers is about the limit of what else I can do.
So if you love this country, and want to keep it worth living in, get up off your duff and VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO. And tell your friends and neighbors to do the same. Give them a ride to the polls if they need it. Be patient with the old, the timid, and the dithering. Hope for the best, and remember the sacrifices our forebears have made in the last 250 years to keep this country on the right path.
The democracy you save may be your own.
If anyone has a clue how to make the old links work again, please let me know in the comments here.
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Electoral vote forecast, 10/13/24, from 538/ABC News. Click to enlarge. |
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