Did you enjoy yourself at intermisson, guys? Now that everyone's back in their seats, I'll continue with the discussion - which is as much to summarize and clarify what I know for my own benefit as for anyone else's. Once again, I'm not a legal expert, just a highly interested observer of these things from afar.
(If you do want to hear a legal expert's opinion on these cases, read the excellent analysis by David Cole, Professor of Law at Georgetown University. But he won't give you any popcorn or free movies, like me.)
Well, to pick up from Thursday's post, there are a number of ways the Supreme Court could decide the Prop 8 case, depending on which one can get at least five votes. Marty Lederman at SCOTUSblog analyzes at least seven possible rulings.
- reversal on the merits, upholding Proposition 8 as being constitutional, not discriminatory against gays and lesbians;
- dismissal of the Proposition 8 sponsors’ petition for lack of appellate standing (leaving the ruling of U.S. district judge Vaughn Walker intact and thus returning same-sex marriage to California immediately, if not sooner);
- dismissal of the petition as improvidently granted by the Supreme Court – a “DIG” (same result as above); or
- overturning of the court of appeals’ decision (which upheld what Judge Walker ruled) and sending the case back to the Ninth Circuit for reconsideration in light of whatever the Court does in Windsor, the DOMA case.
- a ruling that applies only to California;
- a ruling that would guarantee same-sex marriage in the eight states that already offer all the benefits and other incidents of marriage (i.e., most civil unions and some domestic partnerships); or
- a sweeping ruling that would provide a constitutional right to same-sex marriage nationwide.
Many commentators I've read this week do seem to think that, having considered the cases back to back, the DOMA ruling will likely have a major effect on how the high court decides the Prop 8 case. So let's turn to that now.
Continued after the jump . . .


