Scott W. Atlas, M.D., formerly professor and Chief of Neuroradiology at Stanford University, now a health care policy Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, a conservative think tank, presents "five key facts" about the pandemic in this opinion piece published on The Hill political journalism website. He begins with these startling statistics:
Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.I have no expertise in epidemiology, so I make no claims about the truthfulness of this article. It is thought-provoking, though. You can read it and form your own opinion, taking into consideration other facts and points of view.
Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.
The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.
In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 10 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.
Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness.
If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.
Also in the news: Navy hospital ship in New York Harbor discharges, transfers last patients
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4 comments:
I'm not certain that "the data is in" quite yet. Some of the Doctor's data showing that the infection rates are lower than predicted is actually the result of the precautions we've all been taking. Let's lift all restrictions and see what happens.
If covid-19, like flu, can mutate or become seasonal, there is no guarantee of immunity. Just because one has had influenza does not mean one cannot get influenza again. So having a "mild" case of covid-19 might not protect one from a future more severe illness. Even a vaccine may have to be re-formulated each season and like a flu vaccine, may not be 100% effective.
The emerging data on complications of covid-19 affecting the brain, causing blood clots and other severe symptoms is unsettling to say the least. There will be more research and "more data" to come.
New information about the "stay home" strategy shows that it can create small epicenters of contagion and further spread. Isolating infected individuals is not going to happen here in the US. Testing is inadequate and some tests are unreliable. Epidemiology without testing and contact tracing is just a guessing game. (I worked in public health/epidemiology during the AIDS epidemic)
Despite the rhetoric about "protecting the vulnerable," while allowing the disease to run rampant to establish so-called herd immunity, that strategy plays into an ultraconservative agenda: that the old, the sick, the poor are not only expendable, but a drain on the wealth and well-being of the young and healthy and affluent. Their loss is not only collateral damage but a desirable outcome. And I guess that the death of a few children, youth and younger adults is an acceptable outcome, so long as most people can go out to dinner and the movies.
The fact that this scary,invisible virus can spread so quickly, be spread by asymptomatic individuals and kill a newly infected person within days makes it a unique disease. And the bodies piled up in cities like New York and health care workers and facilities overwhelmed is not something the rest of this country wants to see happen in their cities and hospitals.
As someone over 70, I fear I may have to live with the threat of this disease for the rest of my life, however long that might be. What the quality of that life might be is not yet clear. I, for one, cannot imagine not being on an ocean beach ever again, but what risks am I willing to take?
So, I don't believe that "the data is in" - certainly not a sufficient amount of it.
You make some very interesting points, Frank, and no doubt some of them will continue to be debated for many years hence. I am not sure that all the "data is in" myself - I used that title for this post because that is the title of Dr. Atlas's opinion piece.
It is simply not worth my time to wade through all the data and all the possibilities - even if I did, who would listen to me? I have no medical creds. And the knowledge would likely not benefit me in any way - I'm retired and have no vehicle, so I've been staying home all day for some years now - the "lockdown" has had no real effect on my life.
But I do think other, younger, more active people will resist more and more being locked up at home from here on. They have stayed in for fear of getting sick or dying - but the human animal cannot sustain any great emotion for longer than a month or so.
And we see that the lockdown is already this week beginning to break up in some states and other countries - the TX governor announced today a partial lifting beginning this Friday. The calls for another six months or even two years - !!! - of lockdown are ridiculous. People just will not do it, not unless a new and even scarier threat appears, which I doubt will occur.
I'm not trying to argue either politics or science here - just stating what is common sense about ordinary human nature, which always comes out in the end. Let's hope the many researchers come up with a good vaccine soon.
As it says in the book of Genesis - "Man was not meant to be alone". The lockdown and isolation are extremely hard on people. I hope as it's gradually (and pray it IS gradual) loosened, not too many are sacrificed.
Quite apart from theology, Genesis expresses a psychological truth. Isolation is hard, and loss of job and income is, too. Without delving into my family history, I will just say that I know well what it means to lose a job, lose a business, lose an income, and be suddenly plunged into dire poverty.
It is not a simple black/white equation, this business of lockdown or not. We must save lives, yes - but people also have to eat and pay the rent and keep the lights on. A via media must be found between dying of the plague and dying of starvation.
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