NO WORDS

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Sunday Drive: Baroque Playlist

I think we all need to take a deep breath, relax, be calm, and know that the power of goodness will continue in the world, regardless of the election.  Believe.

O God of peace, who hast taught us that in returning and rest we shall be saved, in quietness and in confidence shall be our strength: By the might of thy Spirit lift us, we pray thee, to thy presence, where we may be still and know that thou art God; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

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Are the Polls Right?

Use the ABC-538 interactive election map here.
Click to enlarge this screen shot.

The Guardian raises a question that's been in the back of your Head Trucker's mind:  how can it be possible that the American public is so evenly divided between supporters Harris and Trump, and the numbers haven't changed for the last 3 months?

The Guardian writes:  

Large numbers of surveys would be expected to show a wider variety of opinion, even in a close election, due to the randomness inherent in polling. The absence of such variation suggests that either pollsters are adjusting “weird” margins of 5% or more, Clinton and Lapinski argued – or the following second possibility, which they deemed more likely.

“Some of the tools pollsters are using in 2024 to address the polling problems of 2020, such as weighting by partisanship, past vote or other factors, may be flattening out the differences and reducing the variation in reported poll results,” they write.

Either explanation “raises the possibility that the results of the election could be unexpectedly different than the razor-close narrative the cluster of state polls and the polling averages suggest”, they added.

We can't know whether the polls are accurate until all the results are in.  Meanwhile, here are the latest forcasts from ABC/538:

Look how steady their popular vote numbers are - I never recall seeing any poll in any election that looked like this for months at a time.

And here's their probability forecast - more variation but still awfully damn close.

Here's the poll tracking chart from the Guardian itself:

And here's the chart from Wikipedia, which looks very different from the others:

The only vote I'm sure of is the one I cast on Tuesday.  The rest is up to you, my fellow Americans.

P. S. - Of course you know, a president can't get much done without majorities of the same party in the House and Senate.  Look at how often Congress stonewalled Obama when he was in the White House.  But I can't spare the energy to worry about all that just now.

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The Choice Is Life or Death

A cold front is sweeping through Texas, bringing us some much-needed rain and cooler temperatures.  Your Head Trucker is a bit under the weather today, taking cough syrup, aspirin, and a hot toddy, and may go back to bed and sleep the rest of the afternoon.

I don't feel like posting all that's been said in the political sphere the last couple of days, but the video below gives a quick summary.  The thing is, the choice is so clear, the outcome so obvious that only a child or a lunatic could waver between the two candidates.  A vote for Trump is a vote for the death of our democracy; anyone who thinks he is just kidding about being a dictator from day one is living in a dream world.  This could be the last election you will ever get to vote in.

I can't believe we are back at the same place we were in 2016, but here we are: and the peril is even greater.  I'm praying for a big blue wave at the polls to sweep the fascist threat away.  God help us all.

Update, 11/2/24:

The New York Times Editorial Board, prohibited by owner Jeff Bezos from printing a presidential endorsement, has instead published this final warning:

Click to enlarge.

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Kamala's Closing Argument Speech on the Ellipse

The Vice President delivered this speech in Washington, D. C., last night against the backdrop of the floodlit White House, essentially repeating what she has said in every speech of this 100-day campaign.  But her remarks last night were very well-written and well-spoken, and this could be considered the definitive version of her appeal to the nation.  Rachel Maddow afterward called it a "damn good speech," and so it was, in the best constitutional tradition of our republic.

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Fellas, we might wish she had said more about this or that; but the plain truth is she's all we've got, and it's Kamala or the devil. So I'm backing her 100% and I hope you are too. She's a fine person, a good woman, and a true patriot, and thank God for all that. Don't sweat the details; it will all get sorted out as we go along.  The alternative is unthinkable.

 

And today the Morning Joe panel discussed Harris's speech, in contrast to Trump's recent pronouncements:

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Playing to Win: All Gas, No Brakes

* * * * *  W E  V O T E D !  * * * * *

Only a week now till Election Day, November 5th.  Here's a few heads-up for you.

1.  It's straight out of a Frank Capra movie.  Gotta love Coach's do-or-die pep talk to Team Blue:

 

2.  Bernie Sanders cogently explains why you should vote for Kamala even if you disagree with her on some issues:

 

3.  Robert Reich warns us not to fall for the old Red Mirage trick that Trump exploited last time:

4.  Ragin' Cajun James Carville says, "We're gonna win, baby!"

5.  Mika from Morning Joe says "this is the election where you want to know you did everything you could when America was on the line":

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Don't Be a Sucker (1946)

America in 2024 is very different from Germany in 1933; and what we call fascist today is not quite the same as what fascist meant back then.  Still, the broad parallels and present dangers are unmistakable, and this film is highly pertinent to the choice we face in this election. 

He who has an ear, let him hear.

In case anyone doesn't get the point, here are some of today's headlines from Joe.My.God.com:

But then there's this, from Politico:

Harris is pounding Trump on fascism.

Some Dems think that’s a mistake.

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Sunday Drive: Only in America

Nine days from the election in an evenly-divided nation, I offer my vision of the land I love:

We all get a chance,

Everybody gets to dance . . . 

Is that too much to ask?

Recommended read:  Everything is Awesome (Again!) by Michael Grunwald at Politico.  Excerpt:

The public may be grumpy, and politicians may be pitching doom and gloom, but it’s once again time for some great news: America is kicking ass! We are, as The Economist proclaimed on its cover this week, “The Envy of the World.”

The stock market just hit another all-time high. The uninsured rate is near an all-time low. Apartment construction hasn’t been this hot in half a century. Crime, inflation and illegal immigration are falling. Economic growth, job growth and wage growth are strong. The U.S. is no longer at war in Iraq, Afghanistan or, at least officially, anywhere else and its carbon emissions are declining, because its clean energy production is soaring. It’s still the richest and greatest nation on Earth, the land of opportunity that spawned the artificial intelligence boom, ultimate fighting, SpaceX and the Hawk Tuah multimedia empire. And our short national nightmare is over, because after 11 months without adorable cuddle-monsters, the National Zoo just took custody of two giant pandas. . . .

And yet, we haven't heard any of this from the Democratic candidates.  Why?

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Thirty Million Votes Are In

Today's election forecast (not based on early voting) from ABC/538
shows a probability of 53-47 in Trump's favor.
Click to enlarge.

Today's election news is up and down and criss-cross, like the lines on the chart above.

1.  Thirty million Americans have cast early votes in the presidential election.  But it seems more have voted red than blue at this time.  Republican pollster and political consultant Frank Luntz explains why Kamala isn't reaching the "persuadable voters," and what she should do about that:

 

[What I Say:  Though I'm wary of Luntz's recommendations, given his longtime support for Pat Buchanan, Newt Gingrich, and George W. Bush, your Head Trucker has noticed since the first debate that Kamala has no particular agenda to sell.  It's pleasing to the base to hear her call Trump a fascist over and over, but does that win any voters who aren't already Kamala supporters?  

And her speeches around the country, what snips and bits I've heard of them, are mainly a rehash of the same rich-aunt talking points from the first debate:  she wants to help out with the grocery bills, give diaper money to new parents, and hand a big wad of cash to first-time homebuyers (which nobody ever offered me).  Along with nifty catchphrases like "Turn the Page" and "Not Going Back," that's about all I've heard of what she actually plans to DO if elected. She's been way over-cautious about telling us plainly and simply what that is, in my view.

I understand why she can't be the "change" candidate without disparaging Biden.  But that's not cutting it.  Voters need something to vote FOR, not just against.  Think Hillary, or better yet, think Margaret Thatcher.  Extraordinary women, clear -- sharp -- determined.  

But what do I know. Kamala has to be herself, not a copy of someone else.  I don't doubt that she is doing her best right now, and she's fighting for our democracy, so God bless her.]

2.  UK newspaper The Guardian, traditional supporter of the Labour Party, sent a reporter to J.D. Vance's hometown in Ohio to find out why Kamala has low support from male voters there:

 

3.  Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican who broke with Trump after being fired from the White House, explains what Kamala needs to do now to "close the deal" and win the election:

 

4.  Contrary to all the above, political analysts on the Democratic side see hopeful signs in this week's early voting pattern, despite a flood of Republican-biased polls favoring Trump:

 

Well, steady on, boys.  We have to stay the course till the end, if what we believe in is worth fighting for.  No doubt there will be weeks of uncertainty and bickering and lies and maybe violence before we know the outcome of this election for sure.  But hang in there.  Don't give up the ship!  We may find safe harbor yet.

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Waitin' for the Weekend

Undecided voter has watched all the speeches and debates but still can't make up his mind. Can you help him out?

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Trump Takes Lead over Harris

Two things I want to say, briefly.  First, in the furor and excitement of the campaign, it's been easy to forget that until late July, Kamala was not a candidate and had no reason to think she ever would run for president again.  In 2020, she seemed like a great running mate for Joe Biden, nicely rounding out the ticket:  old and young(er), male and female, white and black, east and west, etc.  I expected Joe would put her to good use in his administration.

But then once they got into office, we heard less and less of Kamala way down here in the provinces, until finally she just seemed to vanish into the woodwork.  In fact, when I heard that Biden had dropped out of the race last July, and started wondering who could replace him as candidate, it was 20 or 30 minutes before I remembered Kamala at all:  she has been that invisible for most of his time in office.

All of which is just to say, in recent days it has come to my mind that she must be under a terrific strain, having to jump overnight from a quiet, nearly forgotten role into the heat of a full-fledged campaign. When you consider that, you realize just what a very fine, even astonishing job she is doing.  And I just pray the Lord will strengthen and sustain her in that mission, along with Walz and all others who are fighting the good fight now.  It's a desperate, historic fight, and uphill all the way.  The light of History will gleam upon their helmets, whether they prevail or fall.

The other thing I want to say is, how strange that for weeks we have been hearing about Kamala's slow but steady rise in the national polls; but this week, suddenly it's Trump who is pulling ahead, markedly.  And this after some of the most filthy, most outrageous, most reprehensible lies, threats, and calumnies he's ever made.  Why is that?  Yes, I get the fact that polls are imperfect, subject to all kinds of errors and adjustments, yada yada.  But why now, after weeks of being in the (small) lead, is Kamala dropping behind?  Very odd.

I guess it is just like a real horse race, where sometimes, for no apparent reason to the untrained eye, as they near the finish line one horse pulls ahead and another can't keep up.  Either that, or someone, somewhere is doing some manipulating of a kind I can't even imagine.  All I know is, the only thing that will stop Trump from taking over is a massive blue wave at the polls.  So let's do our best, fellas, and keep hope alive.  It's not over till it's over.

A few stats from the Wall Street Journal, which leans Republican:

P. S. -- Blogger tells me this is my 4600th post on the Blue Truck.  No kidding?  Hard to believe.  That's an average of about 285 posts a year since I started in 2008.  I know it's mostly boring stuff, and nothing to brag about, but it gives this old shitkicker something to do.

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